Unsettled

"Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters by theoretical physicist Steven E. Koonin (former undersecretary for science in the Obama administration) challenges the mainstream narrative that "the science is settled" regarding global warming.

While Koonin accepts that the Earth is warming and that humans contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, he argues that the data does not support a looming climate catastrophe. Instead, he asserts that a "long game of telephone" between original research papers, official summary reports, and sensationalist media creates an inaccurate public perception."

Executive Summary

• The Core Argument: Climate data is highly complex and future projections rely on climate models that have substantial structural deficiencies. The popular narrative overstates human-caused threats while ignoring natural climate variability.
• Misconceptions of Extreme Weather: Koonin argues that actual data from major scientific bodies shows no long-term global increase in the frequency of hurricanes, that heatwaves in the US are no more common than they were in 1900, and that global wildfire acreage has actually decreased over recent decades.
• Flawed Computer Models: The computational models used to forecast the climate a century from now frequently struggle to accurately back-predict past climates, making their regional projections unreliable.
• The Reality of Energy Needs: Completely eliminating global carbon emissions by 2100 is virtually impossible. Developing nations require massive amounts of energy to rise out of poverty, and fossil fuels remain the most accessible source.
• The Solution: Rather than imposing economically damaging emission targets, society should focus on incremental, localized adaptation and research into geoengineering alternatives.

(Note: The book is highly controversial within the mainstream scientific community, where critics state Koonin downplays genuine risks by selectively picking data points.)

Table of Contents

Part 1: The Science

• Discusses Koonin's background and his motivation to write the book after reviewing official climate reports.